WA-SEN: Ad Wars Heating Up

A new ad by independent group American Crossroads GPS titled “Washington Can’t Afford Patty” was released this week:

UPDATE: A reader emails to note a group calling itself Common Sense 10 went after Rossi with an ad starting 9/24.

WA-09: Poll Shows Adam Smith in Trouble

A KING5/SurveyUSA poll reveals that 14-year incumbent Adam Smith (D-Tacoma), may be facing a stiffer challenge than expected from Pierce County Councilman Dick Muri.

Smith’s lead (49%) is within the poll’s margin of error, and only 3 points ahead of Muri (46%). That seems to meet the textbook definition of “within striking distance.”

Expect more independent polling to be conducted in WA-09 to either buttress or contradict the SurveyUSA result.

If Washington Democrats aren’t panicking yet, they’ve got to be awful close to the brink. With a competitive U.S. Senate race rated by many pollsters as a tossup, and two to three Congressional races trending Republican — 2010 may start feeling like 1994 all over again.

More: FrumForum.com and Campaign Spot.

WA-08: DelBene’s First Ad Too Little Too Late?

UPDATE II: Another alert reader emails that DelBene doesn’t disclose her party ID anywhere in the ad. Running from the Democrat label much?

UPDATE: Soon after posting, a reader wrote with this interesting parallel to Burner: “The ad may violate C-SPAN’s copyright policy, which while less restrictive than TVW, still has some bite. Remember when?”

Suzan DelBene is up on the airwaves with her first ad of the general election:

DelBene clearly tries to capitalize on her business background, but surprisingly also takes Reichert to task for earmarks he secured for his district.  In what could be right out of an ad attacking Norm Dicks, Adam Smith, or Rick Larsen — the attack on Reichert seems slightly out of place.

The “anti-Wall Street reform” approach, however, is more familiar.  The same accusation has figured prominently in incumbent Senator Patty Murray’s messaging against her GOP challenger, Dino Rossi.

At the end of the day, liberal commentators like David Goldstein point to the flawed strategy in trying to take down the incubent: tough ad, but a little late. Why late? Because nobody knows who Suzan DelBene is – her name was hidden among a wide field in the primary. And her challenger, the former King County Sheriff, has nearly universal name awareness in the Puget Sound, if not statewide.

One possible explanation for the delay: DelBene is saving cash for a major blitz near the end of the campaign — in the hopes that some major unforeseen event re-sets the playing field (see: October, 2008). Of course, DelBene could be taking a page from the Darcy Burner playbook: is she already plotting a rematch?

Finally, the simplest answer could be the closest to the truth: DelBene is a first-timer. While she doesn’t seem to possess the shrill or scolding nature of Burner, she also doesn’t have the savvy that comes with running multiple campaigns.

WA-02: Trailing in the Polls, Larsen Goes on the Attack

Extended coverage of the Larsen vs. Koster debate is available here.

WA-02: Rick Larsen’s Tea Party Video Exposed

We knew it was coming, Rick Larsen is finally called to task:

See our earlier reporting here, and here.