Washington Poll on Health Care Reports Strong Support for Public Option

By Bryan at March 8th, 2010.

The results of a poll on health care priorities that was taken prior to last year’s general election will be released Monday by The Washington Poll. The group reports that, although only 18 percent of respondents (a pool of 724 registered Washington state voters) stated that health care reform was their top issue of importance, 75 percent affirmed some degree support for a public option and 52 percent approved of paying higher taxes to provide universal availability of coverage.

The Washington Poll is a project conducted in the University of Washington’s Institute for the Study of Ethnicity, Race, and Sexuality (WISER). In 2009, in polling regarding the races for King County Executive and Seattle Mayor, The Washington Poll accurately determined an eleventh-hour swing to Dow Constantine in race for county chief but incorrectly projected that Joe Mallahan would take over from Greg Nickels in Seattle City Hall, not current mayor Mike McGinn.

The responses for the group’s recently released survey on health care-related issues were gathered by telephone during the period of October 14-16, 2009. The reported margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percent. The full report can be viewed here.

Three recent national polls conducted regarding the Democratic health care plan have indicated a six to eight-point margin of opposition to the current package. Specifically, the most recent Rasmussen poll, taken after the much-ballyhooed health care summit between GOP and Democratic leadership, registered 52 percent against and only 44 percent in favor. That survey also contained the revelation that 63 percent of respondents felt that passing smaller reforms was a smarter path to improving the health care system, and to that end The Washington Poll may be useful to politicians in identifying what those smaller issues might be.

Skepticism is, however, prudent in considering the weight that should be given to a four-month-old poll reporting strong support for key elements of the President’s health care package. In terms of gauging public opinion on heatedly debated policy issues, a four months aging of the data can be like the difference between sipping Chianti and spitting vinegar. Cynicism may even be warranted considering that its release comes just as Democrats in Washington, D.C. are caucusing to cross the Rubicon and pass a health care bill using the nuclear option of reconciliation.

But capriciously dismissing polls one does not like is a surefire technique for giving Murphy’s Law jurisdiction to sideswipe one’s own cause. An outlier poll can have a strong effect on the minds of voters if the media chooses not to scrutinize carefully or place in proper context the results. GOP strategists will need to be aware of reports like that of The Washington Poll as the full-court press goes into action this week.

If Democrats do opt to send the bill to the president by way of reconciliation, their public relations strategy may be to prominently cite selected surveys to show that their actions were, in fact, popular.

Would a Jedi mind trick strategy like that work to pass healthcare amid low public support by simultaneously informing the public that they were in favor of the measure? In politics, literally anything can happen.

Tags: Health Care, polls, Public Option, The Washington Poll, Washington State