Who Benefits Most from Gregoire Speculation?

By Evan at May 12th, 2010.

In the speculation about whether Gov. Chris Gregoire may be headed to Washington, D.C. at some point in the near future (to replace Elena Kagan as Solicitor General, so the rumor goes), it’s useful to analyze who benefits from such speculation.

As the GOP’s former party chairman Chris Vance alludes, the woman who most benefits from all this is not Gregoire, it’s Patty Murray.

Point 1: Citing unnamed sources inside Washington’s congressional delegation, National Journal blew up the story on Hotline. Perhaps the Democratic White House and Congressional grapevines are closer than most imagine, in which case Hotline’s source could be any Democratic aide in Congress.

But, if Gregoire were in line for a high-level slot in the Administration, such as Solicitor General, that would likely need Senate-approval. Which makes it more likely that if the Congressional aide learned about Gregoire being on a “short list” not by chance but in the normal course of Congressional business, the staffer is on the Senate side.

Point 2: The first “whispers” reportedly came from Olympia, at least according to Political Buzz. So it could be this is all the result of a chatty press corps, wanting to drum up headlines to sell more papers and fill blog space. This does seem to be where the rumor started smoldering before catching fire in the National Journal.  From the TNT:

“And why not combine the spring’s most-played political parlor game with this one. Would Dino Rossi stop considering a run for the U.S. Senate and start wrestling with yet-another run for governor? Would the state have to delay the filing period to give him more time to decide?”

Point 3: Democratic Party Chair Dwight Pelz doesn’t seem to bothered by this all. Pelz’s comms shop even tweeted a helpful “timeline for picking a replacement” for Gregoire, followed by a tweet with a comment from Pelz that he was pretty sure “[Rossi]‘d rather be Governor than Senator.”

For a Party Chair who is likely to be on defense in so many races as it is, to have such eagerness for Gregoire potentially leaving town, may bespeak an ulterior motive (or a masochistic personality). Maybe Pelz is indeed eager to try his hand at playing Kingmaker?

True, liberal Seattle political prognosticators like Joni Balter have long bemoaned the “stuffy air” in Washington’s Democratic politics. But it could conversely be stated that Democratic apparatchiks like Pelz ought to find solace in the state’s top spots being all locked up.

Again, apparently not so in this case. Here was Pelz to the AP today:

“I can imagine her saying, ‘I’ve done some very heavy-lifting for the state of Washington and now I’m going off to Washington, D.C.,” he said. “As chair of the party, I’d rather have her stay, but as her personal friend, I wish her the best in her decision.”

Now to be sure, Pelz has had his fair share of PR flubs. Like when he made a blindside jab from the left at Maria Cantwell in 2006, saying her Iraq War vote was making it hard for her to recruit volunteers.

But what’s this about wishing Greogire the best in “her decision”? According to Gregoire, she hasn’t even been offered a job yet.

Moreover, faced with what could be a messy Democratic primary, wouldn’t you think Pelz would be publicly re-affirming all the work Gregoire has left to do? After all, in previous speculation about possible Gregoire departures for appointments in the Obama Administration, no potential Democratic primary contenders were flushed out. This time, Brian Sonntag tells KOMO News he’s in if Gregoire’s out.

On second glance, the thought of another protracted special session may have lessened Pelz’s appetite for another year with Greogire at the helm.

So, who then ultimately is fueling from all this speculation — and who benefits the most? On both counts, it’s probably one very nervous U.S. Senator, who doesn’t want the Republican’s top recruit, two-time Gregoire challenger Dino Rossi, getting into the race against her. Recall, a source, most likely from the Senate side, leaked the information. The State Party Chair is either eager for a primary battle, thinks he can play Kingmaker, or is faithfully following the Senator’s song sheet.

Of course, one source left unexamined  is the Obama White House itself. Forcing the Party to defend a Senate seat and Governorship in Washington State, during what’s shaping up to be a bad year for Dems, seems implausible. The messy primary scenarios that would follow also don’t seem like the orderly succession that our dear central political planners would envision.

Which leaves the last stone to be turned: what if it’s the Obama White House that’s orchestrating this entire ruse, in order to actually help Murray? Would all the trouble be worth keeping Rossi out of the Senate race?

If we watch what they do, not just what they say, we may soon know who’s really behind all of this.

Tags: Brian Sonntag, Chris Gregoire, Dwight Pelz, Hotline, Joni Balter, National Journal, Obama White House, On Call, Patty Murray, Reid Wilson, The News Tribune, Washington Democrats

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