Clint Didier’s Road to Irrelevancy
By Nansen at August 23rd, 2010.Indulge me for a moment in a bit of contrarian thinking. The MSM is ablaze with stories of dis-unity in the Washington State GOP following a “jungle primary” where Rossi took 34%, and insurgent conservative Clint Didier took 12%.
Nobody can seem to make heads or tails out of what Clint Didier refusing to get behind Rossi may mean for November. Some think it’ll matter a lot. Others see it as a challenge to overcome. Try this on: it doesn’t mean a darn thing. In fact, it could be to Rossi’s distinct advantage.
But wait you say, doesn’t Dino need that 12% to win in November. Well, yes and no.
A large chunk of that 12% came from Eastern Washington voters. Many of these folks likely supported Clint because he’s a hometown hero. Do they have some beef with Dino? Probably not — and expect to see him make plenty of stops in places like Pasco, Walla Walla, Ellensburg, and Yakima.
If Rossi can set himself apart from the loud (but ultimately small faction) of social conservative elements that supported Didier, while at the same time, hitting Patty Murray on fiscal issues — he can probably keep independents safely in his column well through November.
Furthermore, Rossi shouldn’t have to worry too much about a portion of Didier’s supporters casting their ballots into the trash instead of the ballot box on Election Day. He has the support of Tea Party favorites like Senator Jim DeMint, and Senator Scott Brown is due in town soon for a fundraiser. Republicans in the state are hungry for a win after years of losses; and there’s still an air of unfinished business for Rossi’s loss to Gregoire in 2004 and 2008.
If anything, the impetus is on Didier to heal the rift. Already, an email to supporters has gone out, encouraging them to hold onto their Didier for Senate signs for 2012. If Clint Didier follows through with his threat to hold some of his 12% hostage in 2010, he will absolutely have to face Maria Cantwell in 2012 without the support of most Republicans (those represented by Dino Rossi’s 34%).
To a man, the other 10 Republican Senate candidates that were in the race have graciously conceded and thrown their support behind the candidate with the greatest chance of beating Patty Murray. They did this not just because it is the smart thing for those with future political plans, but because they realized that, for all practical purposes, they all shared the same basic conservative principles. This explains why no one broke away from the pack (before Rossi announced), there was really very little policy substance to differentiate the candidates. In the end, it was simply a matter of who was most likely to succeed.
Whether Didier stays in the game or not, he is largely irrelevant. Rossi will continue his campaign, politely ignore Clint’s protests and demands, and largely benefit from the comparison to a more “extreme” figure.
Tags: Clint Didier, Dino Rossi, U.S. Senate
Nansen
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Some numbers.
Total Primary votes :1,3853,39 100%
Republican primary : 688,611 100% 49.7% of total vote
-Dino Rossi : 461,565 67%
-Clint Didier : 174,918 25%
-Republican other : 52,128 8%
Democrat primary : 675,076 100% 48.7% of total vote
-Patty Murray : 643,059 95%
-Democrat other : 32,017 5%
Other votes : 21,652 100% 1.5% of total vote
-No Party : 14,164 65%
-Reform : 4,313 20%
-Centrist : 3,175 15%
Estimated Ballots : 41,829
on hand to be
processed.
——————
Sources:
Primary voting totals as of 8/21/2010 5:45 PM:
http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/Results.aspx?RaceTypeCode=O&JurisdictionTypeID=1&ElectionID=36&ViewMode=Results
Voter Turnout:
http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/VoterTurnout.aspx?ElectionID=36
——————
Data Conclusions:
-To beat just Patty Murray’s numbers,
Rossi needs at least 94% of the republican vote.
Should 24% of Didier voters not vote for Rossi, Patty Murray wins.
-If all who voted democrat vote for Patty Murray,
Rossi needs 99% of the republican vote to win.
Should 4% of Didier voters not vote for Rossi, Patty Murray wins.
-If all votes are factored in and both parties vote 100% party line, and the “other” votes all choose either Rossi or Murray,
Rossi needs 100% of republican votes and at least 37% of the “other” vote to win.
Should all “other” votes vote for Rossi but 20% of Didier voters don’t, Murray wins.
————–
My Conclusions:
There are some who are upset over Didier witholding his endorsement until Rossi agrees to Didier’s offer. Some have switched sides to Rossi’s camp because of this, but unless 80% or more of Didier’s supporters switch over, Rossi’s chances of beating Patty Murray look very slim. I would hardly call Didier or his supporters irrelevant in this matter, especially since the votes remaining to be counted are in counties favoring Murray. Rossi will need every sympathetic vote he can get, and to act otherwise is to fail to see the gravity of the situation.
Didier’s support should be an easy pick up. Don’t raise taxes, don’t vote for more spending, introduce a santity of life bill. That is basically the republican platform right there and any supposed republican candidate who would plan on doing otherwise ought to raise some flags and eyebrows. Regardless most will plug their nose and vote for Rossi anyway, being perceived as the lesser of two evils, for whatever that’s worth. Washington D.C. is chock full of lessor of two evils and look where that has gotten us.
So yes, there will many “more practical than principled” republicans disaffected by Didier’s demands for conservative reassurances, and they will ultimately join Rossi in all but futile attempt to dethrone Patty Murray. There will be some who even prefer Didier still but will vote Rossi in order to oust Ms. Sneakers. But if you disregard the core you do so at your own peril. These are the true conservatives. These are the dissaffected, the disenfranchised the ones who gave up on the system because of the corruption and lousy candidates who promised to fix it but went on to make things worse and grow government bigger. They have come out of the political wilderness and have made a rare appearance on the political scene. Why? Because they finally found someone worth voting FOR, as opposed to just voting against the other guy. They found in Didier someone who understood the constitution, the bill of rights and the proper role of government. Rossi may want to slow government down but it’s still heading towards a cliff. Didier actually wanted to turn that bus around. That was breath of fresh air and why his core supported him and why he did as well as he did. When they look at Rossi they see just another politician not willing to do much to solve the problem and will probably make things worse, in other words no different than Murray.
Why does this core as personified by Didier matter? They are a new quantity on scene, they are the ones able to tip the balance towards the right. This core feels strongly about the issues Didier campaigned on, and thus can not in good concscience vote for someone who would do harm to those issues. Even if Didier endorsed Rossi, the core would not vote for him. Period.
This is why Didier wanted concessions from Rossi. Not because of ego or because he was being sore loser or spoiled brat. He was brokering a compromise between his hardcore supporters and Rossi. One that would still would not be what his core would prefer, a turning around of the bus, but at least Didier’s compromise would stop the bus and stop any further damage. No new taxes, no new spending, and protecting innocent life. If Rossi could agree to that simple request Didier’s core could agree to plugging their nose and voting for Rossi.
Blame Didier all you want, he’s the one trying to save this thing. An endorsement is meaningless to his supporters and somewhat of a betrayal to them if it does not come with some type of assurance that Rossi will at least “do no harm”. The ball is in Rossi’s court. Didier is powerless to persuade his base without Rossi’s concession. Do the right thing Rossi. For the good of Washington, for the good of our Country. Didier and his supporters are ready and willing to campaign his heart out for you if you but say the word. Swallow your pride. We need this win.
After some back and forth with Didier supporters, I have been flummoxed. On the one hand, Didier’s 3 issues shouldn’t be that hard to support, on the other hand, why should Rossi look weak and appear to be controlled by an outsider? It seems to me–a complete political ignoramous–that the votes Rossi needs, the independents, would not respect him if he doesn’t speak with his own voice but concedes to someone else’s demands.
Then, last night, I had a thought that gave me great comfort. I do not trust Rossi; his history of making seriously stupid decisions with questionable legality left me with HUGE concerns about his ability to withstand the amoral swamplands in DC. I am seriously concerned that he will make deals in DC that are good for him, but not so much for the state or the nation. That was the reason I supported Didier. So, watching Didier make his heavy-handed and ill-considered demands and watching Rossi stay faithful to his own principals is actually giving me comfort that Rossi can and might have a moral compass in DC. Rossi is proving to this one voter that he has the backbone to stand up to blackmail and to take a harder road. It would have been easy for him to make promises to Didier in private that he had no intention to follow. It appears he truthfully told Didier that he could not acquiesce to Didier’s demands. Now, I like Didier’s 3 positions, but I also like it that Rossi has the courage to say no amid a tempest in a tea pot.
Getting those voters is in Rossi’s hands right now. If he takes your advice he will lose. There will be a lot more voters in the general and you can be sure that the SEIU and other unions will be getting out the vote. They didn’t have to waste their money in the primary but you can be assured they will be whipping the vote in Nov.
If Rossi wants to win he will actually have to campaign and bring in the conservatives. To bring in the conservatives this year he will have to prove his small gov bonafides. That’s what they question.
Didier insiders are telling people that Rossi needs to retire Didier’s debt before they make an endorsement. It is extortion, not ‘principles’. Now it makes sense.
Count me as one of those more “practical than principled” Republicans who think Didier had too many blows to his head during his football career. If we are to get patty Murray out of office, it cannot be by splitting the republican vote. My first reaction to this announcement is that Clint has been listening too closely to that AIR HEAD from Alaska. Next thing we know, he will be writing a book, promoting his kids’ reality TV show. She has been a BIG disappointment, hopefully Clint does not go down that same “this is all about me” path.
It’s entirely possible (and not unlikely) that many of the Didier voters were actually whack-job Democrat party operatives, who voted for Didier to split the GOP party. If this is the case, it means Murray will get those votes in November. On the other hand, if this is the case, it shows how scared the Dems are that the end of their reign of lunatic tax and spend is near.
OMG, another conspiracy theory?
Clint Didier, A Classless Act http://clearfogblog.wordpress.com/2010/08/21/clint-didier-a-classless-act/
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