WA-SEN: NPR Says State Key to GOP Majority

National Public Radio analyst Ken Rudin sees a dire picture for the party in power this Novemeber:

It’s been just about two months since my last review of the 37* Senate contests at stake in November, and if anything, the situation has gotten more dire for the Democrats.

…

The story line has long been that the Democrats’ control of the House is extremely tenuous but that their majority in the Senate, while certain to be diminished, is not in jeopardy.

That’s no longer the case.

Bringing that point home right here in this Washington, Rudin moves the WA-SEN race to a tossup after analyzing the August primary results:

In Washington, there are two ways to look at the Aug. 17 primary results, where all candidates, regardless of party, ran on the same ballot.  Sen. Patty Murray, the three-term Democratic incumbent, clearly outpolled Dino Rossi, the former two-time gubernatorial nominee, 46-34 percent.  From that alone, it’s hard to see how Murray is vulnerable, despite voter concerns over the economy.  But in looking at the total vote, Republicans tallied more than the Democrats — not a good sign for Murray in November.  And the polls show Murray and Rossi running evenly, one reason why Obama has been out campaigning for her.  I’m moving this from Democrat Favored to Tossup.

When even liberal NPR says that Patty Murray is politically endangered, it’s time for national Democrats to start worrying.

Clint Didier’s Road to Irrelevancy

Indulge me for a moment in a bit of contrarian thinking. The MSM is ablaze with stories of dis-unity in the Washington State GOP following a “jungle primary” where Rossi took 34%, and insurgent conservative Clint Didier took 12%.

Nobody can seem to make heads or tails out of what Clint Didier refusing to get behind Rossi may mean for November. Some think it’ll matter a lot. Others see it as a challenge to overcome. Try this on: it doesn’t mean a darn thing. In fact, it could be to Rossi’s distinct advantage.

But wait you say, doesn’t Dino need that 12% to win in November. Well, yes and no.

A large chunk of that 12% came from Eastern Washington voters. Many of these folks likely supported Clint because he’s a hometown hero. Do they have some beef with Dino? Probably not — and expect to see him make plenty of stops in places like Pasco, Walla Walla, Ellensburg, and Yakima.

If Rossi can set himself apart from the loud (but ultimately small faction) of social conservative elements that supported Didier, while at the same time, hitting Patty Murray on fiscal issues — he can probably keep independents safely in his column well through November.

Furthermore, Rossi shouldn’t have to worry too much about a portion of Didier’s supporters casting their ballots into the trash instead of the ballot box on Election Day. He has the support of Tea Party favorites like Senator Jim DeMint, and Senator Scott Brown is due in town soon for a fundraiser. Republicans in the state are hungry for a win after years of losses; and there’s still an air of unfinished business for Rossi’s loss to Gregoire in 2004 and 2008.

If anything, the impetus is on Didier to heal the rift. Already, an email to supporters has gone out, encouraging them to hold onto their Didier for Senate signs for 2012.  If Clint Didier follows through with his threat to hold some of his 12% hostage in 2010, he will absolutely have to face Maria Cantwell in 2012 without the support of most Republicans (those represented by Dino Rossi’s 34%). 

To a man, the other 10 Republican Senate candidates that were in the race have graciously conceded and thrown their support behind the candidate with the greatest chance of beating Patty Murray.  They did this not just because it is the smart thing for those with future political plans, but because they realized that, for all practical purposes, they all shared the same basic conservative principles.  This explains why no one broke away from the pack (before Rossi announced), there was really very little policy substance to differentiate the candidates.  In the end, it was simply a matter of who was most likely to succeed.

Whether Didier stays in the game or not, he is largely irrelevant.  Rossi will continue his campaign, politely ignore Clint’s protests and demands, and largely benefit from the comparison to a more “extreme” figure.

After GOP Convention, Didier to D.C.

According to Politico.com, Didier made the trek to D.C. after speaking at his state party convention last weekend. In its convention coverage, the Seattle Times noted the electric reception Didier received.

[Video H/T RedCounty.com]

An article from the political site founded by WaPo writers earlier this week makes clear that Didier will have an uphill climb; national Republicans rolled out the red carpet to woo his rival Dino Rossi two months ago.

In other news, CNN reports on the latest polling that shows Rossi as the clear frontrunner in the GOP Senate race.

Coday Drops. Backs Rossi. Who’s Next?

Dr. Art Coday, who was just recently profiled by KING 5 News has announced he’s leaving the U.S. Senate race and backing recently announced Dino Rossi.

RedCounty.com blogger, Tom Forbes, has the scoop:

Washington GOP U.S. Senate candidate Dr. Art Coday just announced on his Facebook page that he is dropping out of the race, endorsing Dino Rossi, and is going to run for the state house in the 32nd Legislative District.

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Video Digest: Rossi for Senate

Dino Rossi for U.S. Senate got kicked off today at 7AM (or a few minutes after, depending on your browser settings). Here was the much anticipated announcement, made via YouTube video:

Rossi is clearly hoping to capitalize on social media this cycle.  Rossi’s campaign is up on Facebook (almost 9K fans as of this writing), YouTube, and has two Twitter accounts: staff @DinoRossiHQ and the candidate @DinoRossiWA.

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